I don’t usually write about geopolitics. That’s not my lane. My lane is helping business owners get funded when the system tells them no.
But the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran is now in its fourth week, and I’d be doing you a disservice if I pretended it was just a foreign policy story. Because right now, oil prices are skyrocketing, the stock market has wiped out every gain it made in 2026, jet fuel has doubled, gas is approaching $4 a gallon nationally, and the Fed is stuck in a corner it doesn’t know how to get out of.
That’s not geopolitics. That’s your business.
What’s Actually Happening Over There
Here’s the short version: the U.S. and Israel have launched more than 8,000 military strikes on Iran in four weeks. The Iranian supreme leader is gone. So is most of the upper leadership of the regime. And yet Iran just fired long-range ballistic missiles at a joint U.S.-U.K. base in the Indian Ocean. The same missiles that put European cities in range.
Iran hasn’t collapsed. The regime hasn’t cracked. And nobody in Washington, including apparently the president himself, has a clear answer to the question of what happens after we achieve our military objectives.
Meanwhile, the administration temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil to try to cool prices. Which means we are literally funding the country we’re bombing, so they can keep fighting. I didn’t make that up. That’s what happened.
Every strategist quoted in financial media this week is saying the same thing: the economic damage from this conflict will be measured in months to years, not weeks. Even if a ceasefire happened tomorrow, the damage to refineries, export terminals, and production infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE is not an overnight fix.
The Strait of Hormuz Problem
About 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has demonstrated it can threaten to shut it down. And the U.S. response has been to announce that Marines are heading there, which, as one retired Marine put it, removes any element of surprise before anyone arrives.
Qatar, home to the largest LNG export terminal in the world, just announced potential delays to shipments of up to five years. Refineries in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE have been hit. The CEO of United Airlines said he expects oil to remain above $100 a barrel through at least the end of 2027.
The market is watching oil movement, not just supply. And until oil is visibly flowing out of the Persian Gulf again, prices aren’t going to settle down. That’s not a prediction. That’s how energy markets work.
What This Costs at the Ground Level
Let’s get specific. Here’s what’s already being reported as of this week:
| Company / Indicator | Impact Reported |
|---|---|
| Delta Airlines | $400 million hit this quarter; raising ticket prices and fuel surcharges |
| American Airlines | Projecting $400 million in losses this month alone |
| Jet fuel price | Doubled; roughly 40% of an airline’s operating costs |
| National gas prices | Approaching $4/gallon; was under $3 a month ago |
| S&P 500 / Dow / Nasdaq | All three in the red; all 2026 gains erased |
| United Airlines CEO forecast | Oil expected above $100/barrel through end of 2027 |
The Fed Is Trapped and That’s Your Problem Too
This is the part that doesn’t make the headlines but matters most for small business lending.
The Fed held rates steady this week. They have no good options right now:
- Cut rates to stimulate growth, and you pour gasoline on energy-driven inflation. Things get more expensive. Consumers can’t afford anything.
- Raise rates to fight inflation, and you slow hiring, raise borrowing costs, and push a fragile economy toward recession.
- Hold steady and hope the war resolves quickly. But every week it doesn’t, the tail gets longer.
What that means for you: don’t expect rate cuts anytime soon. If you’ve been waiting for rates to drop before you finance equipment, expand, or restructure debt, that timeline just got pushed back again. Possibly well into 2027.
What This Does to Small Business Lending Specifically
Lenders get nervous when the macro environment shifts fast. Not because your business got worse, but because the risk models they use start flashing yellow. Here’s what typically tightens in an environment like this:
| What Changes | What It Means for You |
|---|---|
| Lenders tighten credit standards | Deals that would have closed six months ago start getting declined |
| Commodity-sensitive industries get extra scrutiny | Transportation, food service, manufacturing face harder looks |
| Rate environment stays elevated | Debt service costs stay high, reducing what lenders will approve |
| Revenue projections get questioned | Lenders want conservative forecasts, not optimistic ones |
| Collateral values shift | Real estate and equipment values can move in volatile markets |
If your business runs on fuel, you’re already feeling it in your margins. Your lender is going to want to know how you’re absorbing it. That includes:
- Delivery and logistics operations
- Food trucks and catering
- Landscaping and grounds maintenance
- Contractor and trades fleets
- Trucking and freight
- Any business where diesel or gas is a meaningful line item on the P&L
And if you were already carrying MCA debt before this started, a sustained energy price shock is not going to help you refinance out of it. The math gets harder, not easier, when inflation is running hot and rates aren’t moving.
The Stuff Nobody’s Saying Out Loud
This isn’t a two-week conflict. The people who study energy markets for a living are already saying the infrastructure damage in the Gulf will take months to years to repair, even after the shooting stops. Production shut in at the wellhead doesn’t turn back on like a faucet. Export terminals don’t rebuild overnight. The LNG delays Qatar announced aren’t measured in weeks.
At the same time, there’s no clear political plan on the other side of this. The military objectives have been stated:
- Destroy the ballistic missile program
- Eliminate the nuclear program
- Degrade Iran’s ability to project power through its regional proxies
Fine. But then what? Nobody’s answered that question. And every time they replace a hardline Iranian leader, they’re replacing him with someone more hardline who wants nuclear weapons even more than the last guy.
If the conflict drags on, which right now looks more likely than a swift resolution, the economic pressure on the American consumer and small business owner doesn’t ease. It compounds.
What You Should Actually Do Right Now
Panic is not a strategy. But pretending this doesn’t affect your business is also not a strategy. A few things worth doing right now:
- Audit your energy and utility costs. In an environment where fuel and electricity are climbing, the savings matter more than they did a year ago.
- Clean up your books now, not when you need the money. Lenders in a high-uncertainty environment lean harder on what they can see in your financials. Make sure what they see is clear.
- Look at restructuring high-cost debt. The window isn’t going to get easier with rates staying elevated. Look at your options now, not after two more years of interest payments.
- Model your margins at $4.50 and $5 gas. Not because that’s definitely coming, but because if it does, you want to know your break-even before you need to know it.
The Bottom Line
A war in the Middle East becomes your problem when oil prices spike, your lender gets nervous, the Fed won’t cut rates, and the economic forecasts start looking like a slow-motion pressure campaign on anyone running a business on thin margins.
We’re four weeks in. The people who follow this for a living are saying this plays out in months, not weeks. Plan accordingly.
If you’ve got a deal that doesn’t fit, or you’re not sure how this environment affects your financing options, let’s talk. That’s exactly what we’re here for.
